America de Cali vs Macara: Analyzing the defensive fragility in

America de Cali enters this CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixture with a distinct contrast between their continental efficiency and domestic struggles, having secured only two wins in their last five matches across all competitions. While they managed a clean sheet in their 2-0 victory over Alianza Atletico on May 7, their defensive structure has proven porous elsewhere, evidenced by the 4-0 defeat to Santa Fe on May 13. With a goal differential of -2 over their last five outings, the tactical challenge for the hosts lies in stabilizing a backline that has conceded 6 goals in that same span.

Recent form, side by side

America de Cali’s recent trajectory is defined by inconsistency. Their last five results read D-L-D-W-W, yielding a total of 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. The 1-1 draw against Tigre on May 20 highlighted a recurring issue: an inability to close out matches after taking the initiative. Conversely, their domestic form has been erratic, bookended by a 1-0 win over Deportivo Pereira and the heavy 4-0 loss to Santa Fe. They are currently averaging 0.8 goals per game in this window, suggesting that their offensive output is heavily reliant on specific moments of transition rather than sustained pressure.

Macara arrives in a similarly precarious state, recording a W-L-D-L-D sequence in their last five matches. Their attacking output has been stifled, managing only 3 goals while conceding 7. Their recent 2-0 loss to Emelec and the 3-0 defeat to Independiente del Valle underscore a significant vulnerability against high-pressing opponents. Their continental form is slightly more resilient, as seen in the 0-0 draw against Alianza Atletico on May 22 and the 2-2 stalemate with Tigre on May 7. However, with an average of 1.4 goals conceded per game over this stretch, Macara’s defensive discipline remains the primary variable. Both sides are currently struggling to maintain clean sheets, with only two combined shutouts across their last ten matches.

Head-to-head

The historical data between these two sides is limited, with only one recorded meeting in the recent cycle. On April 10, 2026, the two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana. This single result provides a narrow sample size but highlights a tactical parity that suggests neither side has yet established a clear stylistic dominance over the other. The match was characterized by a balanced distribution of possession and a shared inability to convert high-value chances into a decisive lead. Given the lack of a broader H2H history, the tactical blueprint for this encounter remains largely unburdened by past psychological baggage, placing the emphasis entirely on current form and the specific tactical adjustments made since their April meeting.

Model + tactical read

While no predictive model is available for this specific fixture, the quantitative data points toward a high-probability of a low-scoring, cagey affair. America de Cali’s reliance on defensive transitions will likely clash with Macara’s tendency to drop into a mid-block when playing away from home. The tactical battle will be won or lost in the midfield third, where America de Cali must improve upon the defensive lapses that saw them concede 4 goals in a single domestic fixture. Macara, meanwhile, must address their recent inability to find the net, having failed to score in two of their last three matches. Expect a match defined by tactical caution, as both teams look to minimize the space between their defensive lines to avoid the high-scoring errors that have plagued their respective recent runs. The game will likely hinge on which side can force a turnover in the final third, as both teams have shown susceptibility to counter-attacks when their defensive shape is stretched.

Can America de Cali leverage their home advantage to force a breakthrough against a Macara side that has failed to score in 40% of their last five matches?